Why Demography Matters

Navigating demographic literacy, one research paper and recipe at a time. Weekly updates in the tabs.

Welcome to my Substack! (said basically everyone in 2025.)

Before the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) was dismantled in early 2025, I had the pleasure of serving as the Agency’s chief demographic expert. Among other responsibilities (you can read more about me here, thanks to the Population Reference Bureau), I reveled in nerdy journal clubs on family planning and reproductive health, technical working groups on surveys and measurement, and hallway discussions on population pyramids that made me and my colleagues a hit at parties. [Sometimes, we even had population pyramid themed christmas parties. Exhibit below: The Office of Population and Reproductive Health’s Population, Evaluation, and Communication Division’s 2024 holiday door, replete with our priority countries and their accurate and festive pyramids.]

The overall goal was to position demography as a critical lens to view the world, understand and respond to megatrends, and equip in-country decision-makers with the tools needed to do so.

In the ensuing months of 2025, demography continued to be swiftly politicized in the United States (although, arguably, it has been one for decades as beautifully conveyed in The Politics of Replacement: Demographic Fears, Conspiracy Theories, and Race Wars.) Between headlines about the pronatalist panic, the aging crisis, and fear mongering about immigrants, demography has become a battlefield for willful misinformation.

In normal times, my office would have fought this with evidence-based materials, project-specific technical assistance and more. But we live in abnormal times. I’m launching this Substack to bridge a gap I felt after my time at USAID: the need to discuss, elevate and understand research with real-world implications in a way that is actually approachable and actionable! We often hear the quip, “Is demography destiny?” This is where I attempt to explore that answer.

There are two ways I will be setting the table here (yes, I am food pun obsessed):

Demography Matters: At the Table

This is a 12-part series featuring 10-minute (ish), informal chats with policymakers and researchers to understand the “so what?” of their work. This includes conversations on:

• The fundamentals of demography (fertility, mortality, migration);

• How demography shapes the world (urbanization and megacities, population aging, demographic dividend and more);

• Intersection of demography with complex issues (conflict, climate change, national security and more).

Please get in touch if you have ideas for papers, ideas, and/or people to elevate.

Demography Matters: On the Table

When I am not thinking about demography, chances are I am thinking about food (or overly intellectualizing Love is Blind, but that’s a crisis for another day). My kids - one of whom thought we lived in the country of Texas until recently - challenged our family to cook a dish from every country in the world in 2026. Since I value my sanity, I’ve scaled that back to a 52-week menu. Expect a journey into demography, food history, and silliness.

• Initially, I thought about exploring countries based on a few criteria (like the Total Fertility Rate) and organizing food from high to low fertility countries. But, I heard from many of you who suggested I mix things up to keep it more interesting.

• So, we will have 25 opposing pairs on 25 different indicators over the course of this year. It will make more sense as you read along, I promise.

  • Think of these pairings as the demographic stress tests of our species. We look at the outliers to possibly define the guardrails of humanity. They show us the how - the structural mechanics of survival when a trend is pushed to its limit (e.g., How does a country with no children run an economy?) to undertand the why - the motivations and constraints that drive the data (e.g., Why does a family in a megacity choose a career over a third child?). Collectively, these 50 “twins” represent half of the people on Earth - not a bad start.

I know many of you are my friends, family, or former colleagues—welcome! If you’re a stranger who just likes data and dumplings, even better. In a moment that feels quite dark for international development, let’s find a virtual space to laugh, learn, and eat.

Let’s dig in!